The Fletcher School’s Dimitrios Skiadas explains the decade since the historic referendum
A decade after the Brexit referendum, much has changed on the global stage—but the divisions that resulted in the U.K.-EU split remain visible. Photo: Shutterstock
On June 23, 2016, British voters elected to withdraw from the European Union. Newspaper headline writers didn’t hold back: “UK descends into political chaos,” The Guardian declared. The New York Times dubbed the results a “Leap in the Dark.”
The monumental British exit referendum—or Brexit—shrouded the future of the U.K. and the EU in uncertainty. That it was decided by a narrow margin—52% to 48%—highlighted a stark divide on issues of independence, economics, and immigration.
Dimitrios Skiadas. Photo: Michael Last
A decade has passed since the Brexit referendum—and six years since the British exit became official—and although much has changed on the global stage, the divisions that resulted in the U.K.-EU split remain visible.
Dimitrios Skiadas, the Constantine G. Karamanlis Chair in Hellenic and European Studies at The Fletcher School, watched from the gallery as the British Parliament debated the terms of Brexit in 2019. He spoke with Tufts Now about the dynamics that led to Britain’s exit—and what we’ve learned in the decade since the vote.
Debate over the referendum was divisive—was that intensity maintained for the years it took to finalize the exit?
Yes, it was. The intensity of the arguments [in 2016] was such that even families were divided, friendships were broken. During the Brexit campaign, you could see people quarreling in the streets—but after that, this intensity was transported to the negotiating tables within the British Parliament, and into every election they’ve had since then.
Many of the people who voted to remain in the EU cited the economy as a primary reason. Have their fears of negative financial effects been realized?
The figures are quite revealing: The British GDP has been reduced by 6–8%, business investment has been reduced by 12%, and trade volume has been reduced by 15%, compared to what it could have been if the U.K. had remained in the EU.
What have been the biggest impacts within the EU?
The EU lost its second largest economy, behind Germany, and the most developed defense mechanism, in national terms. European defense is a joint venture, but it now takes a political decision by the current U.K. government to commit British defense capabilities, like its support of the Ukrainian side in the Russia-Ukraine war.
There are other areas where the EU has felt the British absence. The British were accused of being euroskeptics, since the days of Margaret Thatcher, who was prime minister from 1979 to 1990. When the British participated in EU-wide negotiations, their euroskepticism was useful in some of the arguments between countries. The British were contributing realism. This is something that is currently missing from the EU.
Brexit was a turning point both in British and European history because it revealed what the EU was contributing to Britain, and what Britain was contributing to the EU.
“Brexit was a turning point both in British and European history because it revealed what the EU was contributing to Britain, and what Britain was contributing to the EU.”
What are the biggest lessons learned since 2016?
The first has to do with the Brexit referendum being put forward in a binary manner. Although democratic, it’s not the best way of resolving such complicated issues.
The second is that the EU has to learn how to explain its policies in a more convincing manner, with transparency and openness. That goes, also, for the British government, in order to regain the trust of British people.
Have sentiments about Brexit shifted since 2016?
More than 60% of UK citizens have stated that they wish to rejoin the European Union.
If you focus on the 2016 pro-referendum voters, many of them now state they are in favor of rejoining the EU. So perhaps their expectations have not been met in terms of the economy, in terms of the social situation in the U.K., in terms of their quality of life. They believed that leaving the EU would improve all these issues, but this has not been the case.
What stands in the way of the U.K. rejoining the EU?
You have an interesting political paradox in the U.K.: British people are saying they want to rejoin the EU but, when you get to the details and the mechanics of the process, they are divided.
This is demonstrated by the number of political parties dominating the British political scene. We have the Tories, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, the Greens, you have various independent parties, and the Scottish National Party. This was not the case 10 years ago when you had two main parties, the Tories and the Labour Party.
When you have Reform UK saying that they don’t want to join the European Union, and they are being selected by the British people to rule at a local or regional level—and the British people support rejoining the EU at the same time—that’s the paradox.
What do you think happens next?
The United Kingdom made a choice and they might have the opportunity, at some point, to revise this choice. I hope that when they have to decide again, they will be much more informed.
That applies also for the European Union, which has to learn that the British feel they are being punished by the EU for selecting to leave. I think that the EU has to learn to be more flexible if they’re going to regain the trust of all the people who are involved in the European experiment.
